develop four scenarios, develop a broad set of outcomes, don’t chop the tails off the distribution). Best of luck using this tool for scenario planning. Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans.
; Define appropriate strategies, where they are most needed. COMMUNICATE – Create scenario documents and outputs – Enable people to experience the scenarios – Generate discussion of implications. 2 CGMA TOOL: SCENARIO PLANNING: PROVIDING INSIGHT FOR IMPACT Scenario planning is a management tool that is designed to allow organizations to evaluate the efficacy of strategies, tactics, and plans under a range of possible future environments. It’s that most companies lack an effective strategic-planning process.
Tracking the evolution of the company over time. Jul 13, 2019 - The Dos and Dont's of scenario planning by McKinsey.
32-Scenario Planning* This analysis, spearheaded by Shell in the 1970s following the company’s inability to forecast future oil prices, allows a company to look at possible futures, develop a system to flag events, and prepare alternative action plans. [A model is] a template: You use it at the beginning of the planning process.
Scenario planning can broaden the mind but can fall prey to the mind’s inner workings.
It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence..
In short, the problem isn’t strategic planning. The original method was that a group of analysts would generate simulation games for policy makers.
This global picture can be used for different purposes:. A similar scenario today might be what if markets suddenly turn on tech unicorns they consider to be overvalued and we see a similar scenario to the 2000 dot com crash.
The McKinsey 7S Framework is a Tool that describes a global picture of a Company or Business, according to 7 Elements.. A Maintain scenario. Competitive Strength.
– Test preliminary scenario frameworks. A well-crafted scenario is, in essence, a new box—it can help a company look at its future from an entirely new perspective. A Divest scenario. In short, it is a perfect tool for today’s increasingly uncertain and volatile world. ; Let’s explain these 7 Elements in detail: And achieving strategic preparedness takes a structured, organized thought process to identify and consider potential threats, disruptions, and opportunities—which is, for want of a better term, strategic planning. It can help redefine scenario planning for our more turbulent world. The result is 9 potential scenarios with 3 main approaches: A Invest scenario. ACT – Test current strategies
CREATE – Establish scenario framework – Build scenario logics – Generative compelling narratives – Ensure internal consistency. It uses 2 variables for doing so: Industrial Attractiveness. “Think of models as a way of ideating strategy.
; B etter organize the actions to be taken. Scenario planning helps us to become flexible (and) have ready plans for whatever situation we find ourselves in,” Kantar Philippines, Inc. President Gary de Ocampo said during the BusinessWorld Insights online forum on the business impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on … The GE-McKinsey Matrix is a tool that helps companies decide which of its Business activities are worth investing into.
The McKinsey Quarterly recently published an article on scenario planning (The use and abuse of scenarios – Nov 2009), describing the power of scenarios (e.g. Hopefully it won't happen, but if it does you'll be mighty glad that you put a plan in place for it. Jul 13, 2019 - The Dos and Dont's of scenario planning by McKinsey. But new-box thinking is relevant to scenarios in a more fundamental way. expands our thinking, challenges conventional wisdom, protects against groupthink,) plus some do’s and don’ts (e.g.